We will reconvene on February 19, 2020 to attend to the business of the AGM that was thwarted by really nasty weather in January. Same agenda, pending additions or corrections.
At the close of the meeting, we will screen Migrant Dreams, a film about the experiences of temporary foreign workers in Canada. There is much to discuss in terms of the economy, both here and abroad, that leads to the existence and administration of this program, and much to be said about Transitions principles and their relation to programs of this nature.
Do be part of the discussions, at both the meeting and the film.
Back in the good old days we might have thought that we were all going to run out of oil and that was going to at least partly solve the problem of rising CO2 emissions for us. Well, as we can see below, in a way, we were absolutely right. However, human ingenuity (and greed) has ensured that we have managed to not only find new sources of oil (‘tight oil’, unconventional, shale, oilsands, etc) but also keep increasing oil production even while traditional sources peak and decline naturally.
Below is a twitter thread from Andrew Leach, a professor at the University of Alberta and “self-appointed expert waving a Ph.D. around.” He’s got a good sense of humour, and he knows his stuff when it comes to energy, emissions, and what reducing oil production to meet CO2 emissions targets actually means.
On peaking oil production specifically, he saves that tidbit to the very end.
“That said, remember that lower oil production does not equate to no new oil investment. Decline rates of existing assets exceed the decline in demand associated with increased climate action. So, don’t @ me with your hot takes on pipelines or upstream investment. 15/15”
You read that right. Mathematically, because new oil sources are peaking in production so quickly, we can actually lower oil production while still investing in new oil because we need so much new oil just to keep up with demand.
There are a lot of ways you can take that fact, including that we have the ability to do better than the 2ºC or even 1.5ºC scenarios, and save ourselves a whole lot of pain and trouble, if we don’t invest in new oil, as a world, at all.
I’ll let you ruminate about it.
Here’s Leach’s full thread.
The piece in question is here (https://t.co/4evdfxaxz4), originally pubilshed in 2018 but updated in November with new information from the @IEA World Energy Outlook 2019, so I'll consider it a new piece. 2/N
That's accurate as far as the Stated Policies scenario goes, but here's where the gaslighting kicks in. They pivot to describe this as indicative of what we should expect, "as we move towards a lower-carbon future." They then provide this helpful infographic. 4/N pic.twitter.com/Hrkww8MXjH
Let's take a little visit to the IEA's World Energy Outlook and see what it actually says. In Figure 1 of Chapter 1, they provide this useful graphic which shows energy demand and emissions for the Stated Policies Scenario, along with the other scenarios they consider. 6/N pic.twitter.com/0Ca3JSBcM8
That's right: it's not a lower carbon future in any sense of the word lower. It's a higher carbon future. In Stated Policies, emissions increase through the sample. Here's how the IEA describes it: 8/N pic.twitter.com/CPTW0Ac9Gd
Let's recall that one of the central claims in the CAPP piece was that, as we move to a lower-carbon world, "more oil and more natural gas will be also be needed to ensure energy security." However, that's not what the IEA's lower-carbon world scenario actually shows. 10/N pic.twitter.com/GnQso0E6k9
What about gas, you ask? Gas is trickier since you do see very big emissions savings from coal-to-gas conversions, but overall the WEO doesn't support CAPP's contention here either. They see gas demand peaking this decade in their only lower-carbon world scenario. 12/N pic.twitter.com/l3eE6WeNFA
There are 2C scenarios where we see oil demand increasing beyond current levels, but the central tendency is decreasing demand. You can't say that aggressive action on climate = lower oil demand now, but you can reject the implication that Stated Policies = lower-carbon. 14/N
That said, remember that lower oil production does not equate to no new oil investment. Decline rates of existing assets exceed the decline in demand associated with increased climate action. So, don't @ me with your hot takes on pipelines or upstream investment. 15/15 pic.twitter.com/Gnh2eqv6F8
The featured image is from Katy Perry’s “Chained to the Rhythm”, which is more topical than you might think. To satisfy copyright and fair use, if not musical taste, here’s the original video.
